$GOVI— A Speculative Price Model

CVX — The Crypto Volatility Index

As a yet to be fairly launched and currently untradable asset, the $GOVI token currently has no value. As such, the below model is a speculative price model of potential value for the $GOVI token, based on the $GOVI token metrics and other variable data.

IMPORTANT — PLEASE MAKE A COPY OF THE GOVI CALCULATOR GOOGLE SHEET TO CALCULATE YOUR OWN SCENARIOS…you will need to be signed into a Google Account to be able to do so.

The closest and most recent reference used to base the initial figures in the GOVI calculator on is Hegic. While Hegic and GOVI are not direct competitors, they are both decentralised derivative platforms using similar peer to pool protocols.

Hegic also launched recently, so as a data reference point it has more fidelity to current market conditions.

For a full understanding of how the GOVI works, including TVL, fees and governance, please refer to this Medium article —

GOVI Calculator Configurable Variables TLDR

TLDR of the configurable data contained within the GOVI Calculator, all values are adjustable.

  • TVL (On Launch)

CVI requires a minimum of $500K USD in TVL locked into the platform before $GOVI tokens unlock.

This has been used as the base starting amount in the bearish scenario below.

  • TVL (Three Months)

Three month TVL is simply a projection on how the TVL growth will affect other $GOVI data points.

Hegic TVL growth rate rate has been used as a reference data point to model the below scenarios.

Source — https://debank.com/projects/hegic?chart_date=1M
  • Platform Fee

CVI launches with a 0.3% fee (though this will be up for governance vote by $GOVI token holders once governance kicks in).

Therefore this has been used as the starting amount.

  • Locked $GOVI (Fee Earning $GOVI)

To earn platform fees, a users $GOVI tokens must be locked into the platform.

The model has a relatively conservative estimate of 50% of distributed $GOVI being locked into the platform to earn fees as a starting point.

  • Daily Trading Volume (Liquidity Utilization)

The daily trading volume is a percentage of the TVL and how much is being utilized to trade on the platform per day.

Hegic Liquidity Utilization rate has been used as a reference data point to model the below scenarios.

Source — https://www.hegic.co/analytics

CVI Calculator Results TLDR

TLDR of the results generated by the CVX Calculator, all values are based on the configurable variables above.

  • Value of $GOVI/Adjusted Value of $GOVI

Value of $GOVI implies the value of the $GOVI token including those locked into the CVI platform.

Adjusted Value of $GOVI implies the value of the $GOVI token.

  • Market Cap/Adjusted Market Cap

Market Cap implies circulating tokens including those locked into the $GOVI platform.

Adjusted Market Cap implies only tokens that are tradeable/on the open market.

  • Annual Return per $GOVI

Pretty simple, this is the dollar amount a user would receive annually per staked $GOVI.

  • APY % (Launch Price $GOVI)

This is the annual percentage return per $GOVI token based on the assumed market price of $GOVI on launch.

  • APY % (“Zero” Cost $GOVI)

This is the annual percentage return per $GOVI token based on the claim value of $GOVI (i.e zero…though for the math to work in the calculator this has been set to 1c USD).

$GOVI Price Scenario — Bearish

The bearish scenario is the default values loaded into the GOVI Calculator upon first view.

As mentioned above, for $GOVI tokens to initially unlock, the platform requires $500K of TVL and the bearish model assumes this will be the minimum amount locked into the platform on day one.

It assumes only half of $GOVI token holders will lock their $GOVI into the platform in order to earn fees and that the daily trading volume on the platform will only be half of the TVL.

TVL at three months has assumed a 50% reduction on the Hegic TVL growth rate, i.e 5x growth on initial TVL per month as opposed to 10x.

CVX Price Scenario — Bearish

$GOVI Price Scenario — Neutral

The neutral scenario is a conservative middle ground between the bearish and bullish scenarios.

It assumes that $2m USD of TVL will be locked into the platform on day one and the TVL will grow at a similar rate to Hegic, i.e. 10x growth on initial TVL per month.

It also assume that more $GOVI holders will lock their tokens into the platform to earn trading fees (65% in this model as opposed to 50% in the bearish model) and that the daily trading volume (liquidity utilization) will be in line with Hegic’s current LU.

CVX Price Scenario — Neutral

$GOVI Price Scenario — Bullish

The bullish scenario is a more bullish expectation of growth once the platform launches, without wildly speculative.

It assumes that $5m USD of TVL will be locked into the platform on day one and the TVL will grow at a similar rate to Hegic, i.e. 10x growth on initial TVL per month.

It also assume that even more $GOVI holders will lock their tokens into the platform to earn trading fees (75% in this model as opposed to 65% in the neutral model and 50% in the bearish model) and that the daily trading volume (liquidity utilization) will be slightly higher than Hegic’s current LU.

CVX Price Scenario — Bullish

Of course the beauty of the GOVI Calculaor is that you can create your own scenarios if you don’t agree with any of the above, or want to get more bullish, bearish or speculative in general. With the reference framework above, it should be easy to work out your own scenario.

Please note, the thoughts and opinions in this article are those of the writer and in no way should be considered financial advice.

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